The latest global light vehicle production forecast from GlobalData unit LMC Automotive shows growth in 2022, despite a deteriorating outlook for the global economy and the ongoing negative impact of the war in Ukraine.
GlobalData forecasts global market growth of 4.2% to 80.1 million units by 2022.
LMC analysts say that while negative factors are at work and economic conditions are deteriorating in many markets, supply constraints due to the semiconductor shortage are leading to long waiting lists and still unsatisfied demand. In fact, they estimate that real demand in Western Europe and North America is still much higher than the current level of car sales – possibly by as much as 10-15%.
They also note that new incentives in China will boost sales there in the second half of the year.
In addition, parts shortages should ease later in the year, leading to increased execution of backup orders. Indeed, inventories of auto-grade semiconductors are on the rise in China — a possible early sign of dwindling scarcity.
However, a global light vehicle market close to 80.1 million this year would still be nearly 10% lower than the pre-pandemic total of 88.8 million units in 2019.
Regionally, most regions around the world are showing some growth in the 2022 forecast, but Eastern Europe is deviating from the overall growth trend, with losses of more than 800,000 units, mainly due to much lower sales in Russia due to the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy and automotive supply chains.